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| Photo courtesy of fansided.com |
This is part four of a series examining the future of each NBA team. Each piece examines the cap and roster situation as well as decisions that must be made. Click here for part three.
Last offseason, it wasn't clear exactly what the Detroit Pistons were. They had some good young players in Andre Drummond, Greg Monroe, and Brandon Knight, all still on rookie contracts. They drafted Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and went into the offseason with gobs of cap-space which they promptly handed to Josh Smith in the form of a 4-year $54 million deal. Following that move, they acquired another high-usage, low-efficiency gunner in Brandon Jennings, who promised to change his ways. After all that, it still isn't clear exactly what the Detroit Pistons are.
Detroit currently sits in the fifth seed in the East, having the fourth best record at a largely mediocre 10-11. They are putting up a respectable 102.4 points per 100 possessions, good for 12th in the league, while surrendering 102.3, the 16th best. Unsurprisingly, they have the fifth lowest mark in percent of made baskets assisted on, at 53 percent. The team also rebounds quite well, leading the league in offensive rebound rate, and posting the fourth best defensive mark in the league. Unfortunately they make up for that by shooting the fourth worst in the league from beyond the arc and the worst in the league by about two percent from the free-throw line. What Detroit has right now is a mediocre team capable of making the playoffs (in the East) and losing in the first round. Where they go from here could turn them into a legitimate contender for years down the road, or freeze them in a perpetual .500 record.
Monroe is in the final year of his rookie deal, and the consensus seems to be that he will be moved at some point, either during the season or via sign-and-trade. The current Pistons front line is probably not one that will lead them to championship contention, especially if the organization insists on surrounding with guards like Jennings and Rodney Stuckey who cannot make up for the lack of spacing the comes with playing Josh Smith at the three. Smith is in the first year of his deal and going nowhere, and Drummond looks like the kind of player that can, along with another star, lead a team to a championship (especially if he can start to make free-throws). Monroe will likely command a max deal this offseason, and it may not even be a mistake. When DeAndre Jordan and Javale McGee make eight figures, giving a solid center a few million more isn't something to dismiss out of hand. For the Pistons however, it may be, as they would appear to be set if they moved Smith to the four, played Drummond at the five, and found a sharpshooting wing to spread the floor, either alongside or instead of Caldwell-Pope. One possibility: Arron Afflalo. He is having a career year including from distance where he is shooting a scorching 44.3 percent on more than five attempts per game. Big Baby is almost certainly not the long term answer at the four for the Magic, and they will have cap room going forward, making this a real possibility.
Another question worth asking is if Brandon Jennings should, and maybe more importantly, will be the point guard for this team going forward. He is in the first year of a manageable three year deal that likely could be moved without much trouble. The question is how the Pistons would be able to upgrade the position even if they wanted to. By virtue of playing 52 games against Eastern Conference opponents, several of whom have no interest in winning, Detroit will probably not have a pick high enough to land them a star point guard in the draft, specifically Dante Exum or Marcus Smart. There wouldn't seem to be any obvious upgrades available on the free agent market after this year, with the exception of Eric Bledsoe, a restricted free agent who will almost certainly see any contract offer he may receive matched by the Suns. The Pistons will probably have to move forward with Jennings as their floor general, which is certainly not, in and of itself, a recipe for failure. Provided the team can add some defense and shooting ability to the wing, Jennings could be a great fit with his ability to run the pick-and-roll with Andre Drummond and Josh Smith. He may not be the ideal point guard on a team hoping to compete for a title, but Brandon Jennings is a more than serviceable NBA player.
The Pistons have a big decision to make regarding the future of Greg Monroe. The team by no means needs to move him – they could see what kind of offers he gets and match the highest, or let him walk if they feel that is the best option. It would seem that they will not do either of those things, and that he will be moved at some point. Where he will go, and what he will bring back to Detroit are still uncertain. For the first time in years, there is hope in the Motor City, but there is still no telling if the organization is ready to capitalize.
Stats courtesy of stats.nba.com, current as of December 9.
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