The Miami Heat: What Will The Big Three Do, and How Will the Heat Respond?

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This is part three of a series examining the future of each NBA team. Each piece examines the cap and roster situation as well as decisions that must be made. Click here for part two.LeBron James has a big decision to make, one that will shape the league for perhaps the next decade. He has won two straight championships, and could reasonably have won a third had things gone right. He is in as good of a position as ever to win another title, given that the path to the Eastern Conference Finals at this point appears to be a cakewalk. Yet there are signs that Miami is not the best place for the best player of the generation to further his legacy. Let's examine.Beyond this season, the only Heat player guaranteed to be on the roster (unless traded or released) is Norris Cole. Everyone else is either on an expiring contract, or can choose to opt-out. This of course includes the massive deals belonging to LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh, each of whom has an early-termination option allowing them to get out of their contracts two years early an explore free agency. They will not be able to decide again after next season: each will decide if he wants to stay in Miami for at least two more years, or test the waters of free agency. None of these superstars face a simple decision.We'll start with Chris Bosh. As has been extensively documented, Bosh has sacrificed quite a bit to be a part of this Miami team. Though his performances have been consistently overlooked, he is clearly a hugely important member of this team. We saw two years ago when the Heat nearly fell to the Pacers as the result of an injury to Bosh. Last year in the playoffs, as Dwyane Wade fell off, Bosh helped pick up the slack, turning into an extremely capable defender capable of manning the paint and jumping out on pick-and-rolls. He has seen his shot attempts drop, first from 16.5 per game during his final year in Toronto down to 13.7 in his first year in Miami, and now down to 9.9, the fewest since his rookie season where he took 9.5. He hasn't complained, and he has improved every year, first defensively, and more recently, by adding a three-point shot which he is making at an absurd rate of 43.8% (though that almost certainly will drop). Basically, Chris Bosh has done whatever the team has needed him to do for the past four years, and now he has a decision to make: Should he stay in Miami, likely surrounded by a similar cast and allow himself to be remembered as a third wheel on a legendary team, or should he move elsewhere, perhaps make a playoff run or two in which he is the star and prove that he had the ability all along?

Bosh will have a number of suitors from which to choose this offseason. The Lakers may pursue him as an upgrade from Pau Gasol, though it's unlikely that an aging Kobe Bryant coming off a major injury will be a better option than Miami (assuming LeBron stays). Then there are the teams like Philadelphia, Orlando, Cleveland, and Phoenix which will be coming off miserable years but will be adding elite talent through the draft with plenty of cap flexibility. This could be a good way to align the end of his peak with the start rise of another budding superstar. One final option, and perhaps the most interesting one, is Atlanta. Per Spotrac, the Hawks have just under $48 million committed for next season, not quite enough for the max or near-max deal that Bosh will likely command. However, they can easily get that space by trading one of the most appealing expiring contracts in the league, Paul Millsap. Trading Millsap could likely land the Hawks either a lottery pick, or a player on a rookie deal that could give the Hawks hope of becoming a legitimate contender while remaining inexpensive enough to allow the Hawks to dole out a massive deal to Bosh. A front line of Bosh and Horford, two power-forward/center hybrids who can step out and knock down jumpers could be highly formidable. Add in the sharpshooting Kyle Korver, a very reasonably paid Jeff Teague, and the return for Millsap and this team could have a lot going for it. A lot of dominoes would need to fall, but Atlanta makes for a highly intriguing potential destination for Chris Bosh.

Last playoffs Dwyane Wade heard all about his decline, how he was no longer a star, how the Heat were better off without him. This season, he has largely returned to his old form, posting nearly 20 points per 36 minutes on a career high 53% shooting, plus a very solid rate of 5.8 assists/36. Yet it doesn't take a microscope to see the concerns. Wade is resting the second half of back-to-backs and posting his lowest usage rate since his rookie year. These are not the signs one looks for when evaluating whether a player is worth a massive $100 million plus deal. Wade is a legend in Miami, however, making this perhaps the least mysterious outcome of the Big 3. Wade is worth more to the Heat than anyone else, he is close with LeBron, and the Heat can offer him the most money. If he wants to come back, he will come back. The real decision for Wade is whether or not he should opt-out of his current deal, scheduled to pay him nearly $42 million over the next two years. There is an argument to be made for playing out those years and seeing what he can get when this deal is done and the league's new TV agreement gives the league even more enormous revenues. If he can get a four or five year deal worth close to the max, he should probably take it, given his medical concerns. If that isn't on the table is when it becomes interesting. Do the Heat want to pay Dwyane Wade $42 million the next two years if LeBron isn't around? The most likely scenario is Wade opting out and signing a new, highly lucrative deal, but if his knees become more problematic, there is a possibility of the Heat sitting on a significant cap number limiting their ability to replace their other stars.

LeBron James' next Decision is by far the most significant of these three, both for the Heat and the league as a whole. He is the league's best player and is likely to remain as such for at least the next few years. He will almost certainly opt-out to ensure ideal circumstances as he heads toward the golden years of his absolute peak. He has shown signs that he will be able to adjust for the inevitable decline in his athleticism, adding a post game and a remarkably proficient long range shooting ability. The question is where he would like to spend the next half decade. Unlike in 2010, very few teams have prepared themselves for LeBron's appearance on the free agent market. Cleveland, especially with the way they are playing now, has thrown all their eggs into this basket, though things are not looking good for them right now. The Lakers virtually eliminated any chance of luring LeBron by giving Kobe a cap-clogging paycheck rewarding him for past performance. It would seem that his only choice is between the Heat, an aging and increasingly constrained group, albeit still a very good one, or the Cavaliers. If not for Cleveland's embarrassing underperformance to start this season, that would seem to be the better destination. LeBron could play alongside a young star in Kyrie Irving, surrounded by a multitude of recent lottery picks, plus the necessary cap room to sign complementary role players. The problem is that Kyrie Irving has not played like a star this season, and his defense is a legitimate issue. The "recent lottery picks" are looking worse with every Dion Waiters turnover and Anthony Bennett airball. It would seem that even if LeBron was willing to bury any resentment left over from Dan Gilbert's clownish proclamations, he would still be taking an enormous risk heading to a Cleveland team that has shown no signs of organizational competence. Miami may not be an ideal option, at least as currently constructed, but it just might be the only realistic option for LeBron. Things could change as the season goes on, but that would seem to be the current situation facing the greatest player of his generation.All stats courtesy of NBA.com. Salary information courtesy of Spotrac.com. Stats updated through Friday, December 6.