 |
| Photo Courtesy of Bleacher Report |
There has been a level of optimism surrounding the Timberwolves that hasn't been felt for years. The team picked up players this offseason that would immediately improve the team, and the prevailing feeling was that, barring injury, the Wolves would be making their first playoff appearance since the days of Kevin Garnett.
The Wolves got off to a 5-2 start, a record the team hadn't seen since... last year. Still, that team certainly could have been a run for the playoffs if not for a huge number of injuries affecting every key player on the roster. This season would be different. A summer of rest and preparation for the season ahead would mean fewer injuries and a real chance to compete. Since that start, the team has gone 4-7, momentarily falling below .500 before winning in Dallas last night. It's not the best of starts, and it has Minnesota sitting at 11th in the West right now, but only a game-and-a-half back of the sixth seed. Besides, this team is fitting in pieces that were either hurt for much of last season, or on different teams. Things figure to improve for the Wolves.
The problems start when you look beyond this season. Minnesota is capped out after doling out big multiyear deals to players such as Nikola Pekovic, Corey Brewer, Kevin Martin, and Chase Budinger. Kevin Love, as has been discussed all over, can opt out of his deal after next season. Ricky Rubio will be a free agent following next season, and Ricky Adelman's future with the team is unclear. Assuming the team options for Gorgui Dieng and Shabazz Muhammad, as well as Chase Budinger's player option are picked up, the Wolves will be at a little over $32 million in salary commitments according to Spotrac. That may not sound like a lot, and it shouldn't, but that total is for six players. Add in a max contract for Love and you're looking at around $49 million. The salary cap for next season is projected at $62.1 million according to HoopsWorld, and for these purposes we'll assume a 2015 cap of $63 million. Add in minimum roster charges and you have just under $52 million. Ricky Rubio's cap hold of around $6.7 million and you're at about $58.7 million. So assuming that the Timberwolves renounce all free agents except Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio, you're looking at around $4 million in cap space. Those calculations also assume that the team adds no players over the next two years, which is obviously unrealistic, but it gives you a pretty accurate picture of the team's cap situation over the next few years. What does this all mean?
Basically, the Timberwolves do not have the means to significantly improve outside of player development and drafting1 unless some kind of trade is made. That's OK if you feel you have a championship caliber core, but it's unclear that this is the case for Minnesota. By 2015, Kevin Martin and perhaps Nikola Pekovic figure to be in decline while still being compensated handsomely. Unless someone makes the leap, or Flip Saunders is able to acquire a star, this team is not going to compete for a championship anytime soon. In a small market, this is not an uncommon dilemma. Do you follow the Thunder model (when can I start calling this the 76ers model?) and tank until you have a star or two? Or do you do the best you can with what you have and hope that everything comes together and you are able to compete without the years of suffering? The Timberwolves tried the former (perhaps unintentionally) for years, and now are banking that Kevin Love, Ricky Rubio, and Nikola Pekovic can be a close approximation of what Indiana and Memphis have been able to have success with. It's an understandable gamble, but it does run the risk that the peak for this team is no higher than the second round, or worse, that Kevin Love sees the situation for what it is and leaves for greener pastures in which a championship is a legitimate goal, pushing the reset button on a decade-long rebuilding project.
1 Adding to this issue is the fact that David Kahn, in his infinite wisdom, included the Timberwolves 2014 first round pick in order to get rid of Wes Johnson. The pick is top-13 protected for this draft, top-12 for the next two years and then becomes a second rounder if not conveyed (nbadraft.net), so if the Wolves miss the playoffs this season, they may hold onto that pick for the time being. ↩
No comments:
Post a Comment