The Spacing Issue: The Detroit Pistons Plan To Improve a New Look Squad

Photo courtesy of fansided.com

This is part four of a series examining the future of each NBA team. Each piece examines the cap and roster situation as well as decisions that must be made. Click here for part three. 

Last offseason, it wasn't clear exactly what the Detroit Pistons were. They had some good young players in Andre Drummond, Greg Monroe, and Brandon Knight, all still on rookie contracts. They drafted Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and went into the offseason with gobs of cap-space which they promptly handed to Josh Smith in the form of a 4-year $54 million deal. Following that move, they acquired another high-usage, low-efficiency gunner in Brandon Jennings, who promised to change his ways. After all that, it still isn't clear exactly what the Detroit Pistons are.
Detroit currently sits in the fifth seed in the East, having the fourth best record at a largely mediocre 10-11. They are putting up a respectable 102.4 points per 100 possessions, good for 12th in the league, while surrendering 102.3, the 16th best. Unsurprisingly, they have the fifth lowest mark in percent of made baskets assisted on, at 53 percent. The team also rebounds quite well, leading the league in offensive rebound rate, and posting the fourth best defensive mark in the league. Unfortunately they make up for that by shooting the fourth worst in the league from beyond the arc and the worst in the league by about two percent from the free-throw line. What Detroit has right now is a mediocre team capable of making the playoffs (in the East) and losing in the first round. Where they go from here could turn them into a legitimate contender for years down the road, or freeze them in a perpetual .500 record.

Monroe is in the final year of his rookie deal, and the consensus seems to be that he will be moved at some point, either during the season or via sign-and-trade. The current Pistons front line is probably not one that will lead them to championship contention, especially if the organization insists on surrounding with guards like Jennings and Rodney Stuckey who cannot make up for the lack of spacing the comes with playing Josh Smith at the three. Smith is in the first year of his deal and going nowhere, and Drummond looks like the kind of player that can, along with another star, lead a team to a championship (especially if he can start to make free-throws). Monroe will likely command a max deal this offseason, and it may not even be a mistake. When DeAndre Jordan and Javale McGee make eight figures, giving a solid center a few million more isn't something to dismiss out of hand. For the Pistons however, it may be, as they would appear to be set if they moved Smith to the four, played Drummond at the five, and found a sharpshooting wing to spread the floor, either alongside or instead of Caldwell-Pope. One possibility: Arron Afflalo. He is having a career year including from distance where he is shooting a scorching 44.3 percent on more than five attempts per game. Big Baby is almost certainly not the long term answer at the four for the Magic, and they will have cap room going forward, making this a real possibility.

Another question worth asking is if Brandon Jennings should, and maybe more importantly, will be the point guard for this team going forward. He is in the first year of a manageable three year deal that likely could be moved without much trouble. The question is how the Pistons would be able to upgrade the position even if they wanted to. By virtue of playing 52 games against Eastern Conference opponents, several of whom have no interest in winning, Detroit will probably not have a pick high enough to land them a star point guard in the draft, specifically Dante Exum or Marcus Smart. There wouldn't seem to be any obvious upgrades available on the free agent market after this year, with the exception of Eric Bledsoe, a restricted free agent who will almost certainly see any contract offer he may receive matched by the Suns. The Pistons will probably have to move forward with Jennings as their floor general, which is certainly not, in and of itself, a recipe for failure. Provided the team can add some defense and shooting ability to the wing, Jennings could be a great fit with his ability to run the pick-and-roll with Andre Drummond and Josh Smith. He may not be the ideal point guard on a team hoping to compete for a title, but Brandon Jennings is a more than serviceable NBA player.

The Pistons have a big decision to make regarding the future of Greg Monroe. The team by no means needs to move him – they could see what kind of offers he gets and match the highest, or let him walk if they feel that is the best option. It would seem that they will not do either of those things, and that he will be moved at some point. Where he will go, and what he will bring back to Detroit are still uncertain. For the first time in years, there is hope in the Motor City, but there is still no telling if the organization is ready to capitalize.

Stats courtesy of stats.nba.com, current as of December 9.

The Miami Heat: What Will The Big Three Do, and How Will the Heat Respond?

Photo courtesy of smittdog.com

This is part three of a series examining the future of each NBA team. Each piece examines the cap and roster situation as well as decisions that must be made. Click here for part two.LeBron James has a big decision to make, one that will shape the league for perhaps the next decade. He has won two straight championships, and could reasonably have won a third had things gone right. He is in as good of a position as ever to win another title, given that the path to the Eastern Conference Finals at this point appears to be a cakewalk. Yet there are signs that Miami is not the best place for the best player of the generation to further his legacy. Let's examine.Beyond this season, the only Heat player guaranteed to be on the roster (unless traded or released) is Norris Cole. Everyone else is either on an expiring contract, or can choose to opt-out. This of course includes the massive deals belonging to LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh, each of whom has an early-termination option allowing them to get out of their contracts two years early an explore free agency. They will not be able to decide again after next season: each will decide if he wants to stay in Miami for at least two more years, or test the waters of free agency. None of these superstars face a simple decision.We'll start with Chris Bosh. As has been extensively documented, Bosh has sacrificed quite a bit to be a part of this Miami team. Though his performances have been consistently overlooked, he is clearly a hugely important member of this team. We saw two years ago when the Heat nearly fell to the Pacers as the result of an injury to Bosh. Last year in the playoffs, as Dwyane Wade fell off, Bosh helped pick up the slack, turning into an extremely capable defender capable of manning the paint and jumping out on pick-and-rolls. He has seen his shot attempts drop, first from 16.5 per game during his final year in Toronto down to 13.7 in his first year in Miami, and now down to 9.9, the fewest since his rookie season where he took 9.5. He hasn't complained, and he has improved every year, first defensively, and more recently, by adding a three-point shot which he is making at an absurd rate of 43.8% (though that almost certainly will drop). Basically, Chris Bosh has done whatever the team has needed him to do for the past four years, and now he has a decision to make: Should he stay in Miami, likely surrounded by a similar cast and allow himself to be remembered as a third wheel on a legendary team, or should he move elsewhere, perhaps make a playoff run or two in which he is the star and prove that he had the ability all along?

Bosh will have a number of suitors from which to choose this offseason. The Lakers may pursue him as an upgrade from Pau Gasol, though it's unlikely that an aging Kobe Bryant coming off a major injury will be a better option than Miami (assuming LeBron stays). Then there are the teams like Philadelphia, Orlando, Cleveland, and Phoenix which will be coming off miserable years but will be adding elite talent through the draft with plenty of cap flexibility. This could be a good way to align the end of his peak with the start rise of another budding superstar. One final option, and perhaps the most interesting one, is Atlanta. Per Spotrac, the Hawks have just under $48 million committed for next season, not quite enough for the max or near-max deal that Bosh will likely command. However, they can easily get that space by trading one of the most appealing expiring contracts in the league, Paul Millsap. Trading Millsap could likely land the Hawks either a lottery pick, or a player on a rookie deal that could give the Hawks hope of becoming a legitimate contender while remaining inexpensive enough to allow the Hawks to dole out a massive deal to Bosh. A front line of Bosh and Horford, two power-forward/center hybrids who can step out and knock down jumpers could be highly formidable. Add in the sharpshooting Kyle Korver, a very reasonably paid Jeff Teague, and the return for Millsap and this team could have a lot going for it. A lot of dominoes would need to fall, but Atlanta makes for a highly intriguing potential destination for Chris Bosh.

Last playoffs Dwyane Wade heard all about his decline, how he was no longer a star, how the Heat were better off without him. This season, he has largely returned to his old form, posting nearly 20 points per 36 minutes on a career high 53% shooting, plus a very solid rate of 5.8 assists/36. Yet it doesn't take a microscope to see the concerns. Wade is resting the second half of back-to-backs and posting his lowest usage rate since his rookie year. These are not the signs one looks for when evaluating whether a player is worth a massive $100 million plus deal. Wade is a legend in Miami, however, making this perhaps the least mysterious outcome of the Big 3. Wade is worth more to the Heat than anyone else, he is close with LeBron, and the Heat can offer him the most money. If he wants to come back, he will come back. The real decision for Wade is whether or not he should opt-out of his current deal, scheduled to pay him nearly $42 million over the next two years. There is an argument to be made for playing out those years and seeing what he can get when this deal is done and the league's new TV agreement gives the league even more enormous revenues. If he can get a four or five year deal worth close to the max, he should probably take it, given his medical concerns. If that isn't on the table is when it becomes interesting. Do the Heat want to pay Dwyane Wade $42 million the next two years if LeBron isn't around? The most likely scenario is Wade opting out and signing a new, highly lucrative deal, but if his knees become more problematic, there is a possibility of the Heat sitting on a significant cap number limiting their ability to replace their other stars.

LeBron James' next Decision is by far the most significant of these three, both for the Heat and the league as a whole. He is the league's best player and is likely to remain as such for at least the next few years. He will almost certainly opt-out to ensure ideal circumstances as he heads toward the golden years of his absolute peak. He has shown signs that he will be able to adjust for the inevitable decline in his athleticism, adding a post game and a remarkably proficient long range shooting ability. The question is where he would like to spend the next half decade. Unlike in 2010, very few teams have prepared themselves for LeBron's appearance on the free agent market. Cleveland, especially with the way they are playing now, has thrown all their eggs into this basket, though things are not looking good for them right now. The Lakers virtually eliminated any chance of luring LeBron by giving Kobe a cap-clogging paycheck rewarding him for past performance. It would seem that his only choice is between the Heat, an aging and increasingly constrained group, albeit still a very good one, or the Cavaliers. If not for Cleveland's embarrassing underperformance to start this season, that would seem to be the better destination. LeBron could play alongside a young star in Kyrie Irving, surrounded by a multitude of recent lottery picks, plus the necessary cap room to sign complementary role players. The problem is that Kyrie Irving has not played like a star this season, and his defense is a legitimate issue. The "recent lottery picks" are looking worse with every Dion Waiters turnover and Anthony Bennett airball. It would seem that even if LeBron was willing to bury any resentment left over from Dan Gilbert's clownish proclamations, he would still be taking an enormous risk heading to a Cleveland team that has shown no signs of organizational competence. Miami may not be an ideal option, at least as currently constructed, but it just might be the only realistic option for LeBron. Things could change as the season goes on, but that would seem to be the current situation facing the greatest player of his generation.All stats courtesy of NBA.com. Salary information courtesy of Spotrac.com. Stats updated through Friday, December 6.
 

The End of an Era: What's Next for the San Antonio Spurs?

Photo courtesy of Wages of Wins

This is part two of a series examining the future of each NBA team. Each piece examines the cap and roster situation as well as decisions that must be made. Click here for part one.

The San Antonio Spurs are the model for NBA franchises. They have won four championships since drafting Tim Duncan, and they came within seconds of winning a fifth. Their coaches and executives are poached by teams across the league and despite the ages of their core, the team continues to pile up wins. Yet at some point this has to end. It may not be this year, and it may not be next year, but as hard as it is to believe, there will come a day when Tim Duncan is no longer in uniform and Gregg Popovich no longer roams the sidelines.

The Spurs currently sit comfortably at the top of the Western conference standings, a place they know well. Their stars continue to play fewer minutes while being replaced by younger players like Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green. Their offense is generally accepted as elite, though this year it's been their defense making the difference. San Antonio gives up a mere 93.5 points per 100 possessions, good for second in the league. It's early, but if these trends hold, there is no reason to think the Spurs can't compete for another title, though the Western Conference is as tough as it's been in years. When you look beyond this year, things get more interesting.

Tim Duncan has a $10 million player option for next season, and assuming he exercises it, the Spurs will return all five starters, dealing only with the expiring contracts of Boris Diaw, Matt Bonner, Nando De Colo, Patty Mills, and Aron Baynes. These players have played a combined 22.1 percent of the Spurs minutes, not an insignificant figure, but either re-signing or replacing them shouldn't be overly difficult. After that is when things get far more interesting.

The Spurs currently have only Tiago Splitter on the books for the 2015-16 season, ignoring cap holds. Based on logic detailed here, we will use an estimated salary cap of $63 million. They likely will sign Kawhi Leonard to a sizable extension before the summer of 2015, so for these purposes he will be assigned a max contract which would pay him a little under $16 million using the estimated cap. Those contracts combine for $24.25 million, which after accounting for minimum cap holds, gives the Spurs around $33 million in cap space.  Obviously by this time the Spurs will have more than two players, but that is the point of this exercise. After next year, the Spurs will essentially have a clean slate. Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili will likely be gone, probably bringing coach Gregg Popovich with them, and a whole new era of Spurs basketball will begin. They can hold onto Parker, perhaps at a bit of a Duncanesque discount, and attempt to build around Splitter, Leonard, and him, or they can let Parker go and try to build some other way. Either way, things are going to be drastically different in a relatively short amount of time.

For years there has been a question of who has been most responsible for the Spurs success. Is Gregg Popovich truly one of the greatest coaches of all-time, or has he just been a coattail rider of one of the best big men the sport has ever seen? What kind of success might Manu Ginobili have experienced given his own team? Where does Tony Parker rank among the generation's best point guards? As we are seeing now, these questions will almost certainly never be answered. Popovich has said that he intends to retire when Duncan does, and Ginobili more than likely will be right there with them. By that point, it will be too late for Parker to show what his true talents are, and the torch may instead be handed to Kawhi Leonard, or maybe even someone who isn't in a Spurs uniform yet.

Whatever the case, the one question we may get an answer to is the one regarding the organizational strategy. GMs like Sam Presti and Rob Hennigan were hired to bring the Spurs' philosophy elsewhere, hoping to replicate the team's success. Without perhaps the greatest power forward of all time, we will be able to see more clearly whether or not the Spurs are capable to sustain success. San Antonio remains a very legitimate title contender for this year, and maybe next as well, but we are quickly nearing the end of a largely under-appreciated era of dominance.

All stats courtesy of NBA.com. Salary information courtesy of Spotrac.com. Stats updated through Sunday, December 1.

The Course for Mediocrity: Examining the Timberwolves Cap Situation

Photo Courtesy of Bleacher Report

This is part one of a series examining the future of each NBA team. Each piece examines the cap and roster situation as well as decisions that must be made. 

There has been a level of optimism surrounding the Timberwolves that hasn't been felt for years. The team picked up players this offseason that would immediately improve the team, and the prevailing feeling was that, barring injury, the Wolves would be making their first playoff appearance since the days of Kevin Garnett.

The Wolves got off to a 5-2 start, a record the team hadn't seen since... last year. Still, that team certainly could have been a run for the playoffs if not for a huge number of injuries affecting every key player on the roster. This season would be different. A summer of rest and preparation for the season ahead would mean fewer injuries and a real chance to compete. Since that start, the team has gone 4-7, momentarily falling below .500 before winning in Dallas last night. It's not the best of starts, and it has Minnesota sitting at 11th in the West right now, but only a game-and-a-half back of the sixth seed. Besides, this team is fitting in pieces that were either hurt for much of last season, or on different teams. Things figure to improve for the Wolves.

The problems start when you look beyond this season. Minnesota is capped out after doling out big multiyear deals to players such as Nikola Pekovic, Corey Brewer, Kevin Martin, and Chase Budinger. Kevin Love, as has been discussed all over, can opt out of his deal after next season. Ricky Rubio will be a free agent following next season, and Ricky Adelman's future with the team is unclear. Assuming the team options for Gorgui Dieng and Shabazz Muhammad, as well as Chase Budinger's player option are picked up, the Wolves will be at a little over $32 million in salary commitments according to Spotrac. That may not sound like a lot, and it shouldn't, but that total is for six players. Add in a max contract for Love and you're looking at around $49 million. The salary cap for next season is projected at $62.1 million according to HoopsWorld, and for these purposes we'll assume a 2015 cap of $63 million. Add in minimum roster charges and you have just under $52 million. Ricky Rubio's cap hold of around $6.7 million and you're at about $58.7 million. So assuming that the Timberwolves renounce all free agents except Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio, you're looking at around $4 million in cap space. Those calculations also assume that the team adds no players over the next two years, which is obviously unrealistic, but it gives you a pretty accurate picture of the team's cap situation over the next few years. What does this all mean?

Basically, the Timberwolves do not have the means to significantly improve outside of player development and drafting¹ unless some kind of trade is made. That's OK if you feel you have a championship caliber core, but it's unclear that this is the case for Minnesota. By 2015, Kevin Martin and perhaps Nikola Pekovic figure to be in decline while still being compensated handsomely. Unless someone makes the leap, or Flip Saunders is able to acquire a star, this team is not going to compete for a championship anytime soon. In a small market, this is not an uncommon dilemma. Do you follow the Thunder model (when can I start calling this the 76ers model?) and tank until you have a star or two? Or do you do the best you can with what you have and hope that everything comes together and you are able to compete without the years of suffering? The Timberwolves tried the former (perhaps unintentionally) for years, and now are banking that Kevin Love, Ricky Rubio, and Nikola Pekovic can be a close approximation of what Indiana and Memphis have been able to have success with. It's an understandable gamble, but it does run the risk that the peak for this team is no higher than the second round, or worse, that Kevin Love sees the situation for what it is and leaves for greener pastures in which a championship is a legitimate goal, pushing the reset button on a decade-long rebuilding project.

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1 Adding to this issue is the fact that David Kahn, in his infinite wisdom, included the Timberwolves 2014 first round pick in order to get rid of Wes Johnson. The pick is top-13 protected for this draft, top-12 for the next two years and then becomes a second rounder if not conveyed (nbadraft.net), so if the Wolves miss the playoffs this season, they may hold onto that pick for the time being. ^↩